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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to MIA 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-27-J.Wilcox. PENALTY on DAL-59-A.Hitchens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.53 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP