Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 95

Miami Dolphins 14 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-L.Whitehead to MIA 36 for 18 yards (4-M.Darr). PENALTY on MIA-4-M.Darr, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.43 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 95, worth -5.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model