4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 14 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to DAL 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model