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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 20-D.McFadden right tackle to MIA 38 for -2 yards (93-N.Suh; 79-D.Shelby).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EP