Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 14 – Dallas Cowboys 24

(:12) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 8 for -22 yards (90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.28 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -1.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP