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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 87

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to MIA 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.65 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 45, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP