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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 28

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model