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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

DEN
41.0%
CHI
59.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Jay Cutler (CHI) +0.153 vs Brock Osweiler (DEN) +0.138 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Brock Osweiler in place of Peyton Manning)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DEN

Peyton Manning QB Out Foot
DeMarcus Ware LB Out Back
Antonio Smith DE Questionable Hip
Vance Walker DE Questionable Shoulder
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle
David Bruton S Probable Quadricep
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Virgil Green TE Probable Finger
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Ronnie Hillman RB Probable Quadricep
Matt Paradis C Probable Elbow
Shane Ray LB Probable Knee
Danny Trevathan LB Probable Rib Cage
Louis Vasquez G Probable Back
Derek Wolfe DE Probable Solar Plexus

CHI

Eddie Royal WR Out Knee
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Groin
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Knee
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Jermon Bushrod T Probable Shoulder
Hroniss Grasu C Probable Neck
Antrel Rolle S Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 17
–
CHI 15

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:26 TD DEN (12:26) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 88-D.Thomas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 10:37 FG CHI (10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DEN 7 – CHI 3
  • Q2 06:18 FG CHI (6:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DEN 7 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG DEN (:04) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 10 – CHI 6
  • Q3 00:54 FG CHI (:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DEN 10 – CHI 9
  • Q4 11:47 TD DEN (11:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 14-C.Latimer for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – CHI 9
  • Q4 00:29 TD CHI (:29) 98-M.Unrein reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – CHI 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:59) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to DEN 26, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (6:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to DEN 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%

    (10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CHI 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (6:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DEN 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 42%

    (3:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 30 yards to DEN 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 21%

    (12:09) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to DEN 48, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 39%

    (9:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (4:27) (Run formation) 53-J.Ferentz and 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 23-R.Hillman left end to CHI 2 for no gain (59-C.Jones). Measurement.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (10:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Langford (21-A.Talib).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 25%

    (4:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 25 yards to CHI 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 4 yards (30-D.Bruton).