Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 76

Denver Broncos 7 – Chicago Bears 3

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CHI 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model