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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 67

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:59) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to DEN 26, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP