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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 19

Chicago Bears 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model