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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 42

Chicago Bears 6 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 30 yards to DEN 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.53 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP