4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 82

Chicago Bears 6 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to DEN 48, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP