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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 19

Chicago Bears 6 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model