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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 6 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model