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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 16:25 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🥶 Cold Spread -1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

GB
45.5%
MIN
54.5%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.023 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.112 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 22
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

GB

Jared Abbrederis WR Out Rib
Micah Hyde S Questionable Hip
T.J. Lang G Questionable Shoulder
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Ankle
Morgan Burnett S Probable Ankle
James Jones WR Probable Quadricep
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Groin
Mike Neal LB Probable Hip
Nick Perry LB Probable Shoulder
Aaron Rodgers QB Probable right Shoulder
David Bakhtiari T Probable Knee
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Knee
Jayrone Elliott LB Probable Ankle
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Josh Sitton G Probable Knee

MIN

Robert Blanton S Questionable Back
Matt Kalil T Questionable Toe
Matt Asiata RB Probable Quadricep
Anthony Barr LB Probable Hand
Teddy Bridgewater QB Probable left Shoulder
Sharrif Floyd DT Probable Knee
Tom Johnson DT Probable Concussion
Eric Kendricks LB Probable Rib
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Hamstring
Marcus Sherels CB Probable Shoulder
Adam Thielen WR Probable Shoulder
Justin Trattou DE Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
MIN 13

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:54 FG GB (4:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 03:11 TD MIN (3:11) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 82-K.Rudolph for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-33-M.Hyde was injured during the play. GB 3 – MIN 6
  • Q1 01:42 FG GB (1:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 6 – MIN 6
  • Q2 10:22 FG GB (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 9 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:10 TD GB (:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 15 – MIN 6
  • Q3 10:18 FG GB (10:18) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 19 – MIN 6
  • Q3 02:42 TD MIN (2:42) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – MIN 12
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 89-J.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 25 – MIN 13
  • Q4 04:19 FG GB (4:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 30 – MIN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 45%

    (10:31) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (4:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (1:42) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to GB 33, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 86%

    (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:17) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to GB 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 30%

    (2:26) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 27 yards to GB 20, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (10:18) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to GB 10, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-R.Cobb to GB 9 for -1 yards (35-M.Sherels).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 14 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:46) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to MIN 47, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels to 50 for 3 yards (48-J.Thomas). PENALTY on MIN-34-A.Sendejo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 47.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:27) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 50 yards to MIN 9, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%

    (6:25) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay punts 36 yards to MIN 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs [95-D.Jones].

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%

    (4:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 82%

    (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.