Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Green Bay Packers 9

(6:17) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to GB 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model