Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Green Bay Packers 9

(2:26) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 27 yards to GB 20, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP

KICK -1.01 EP

30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
70% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model