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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to GB 10, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-R.Cobb to GB 9 for -1 yards (35-M.Sherels).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model