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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 34

Green Bay Packers 27 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model