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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model