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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model