Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to ATL 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-E.Weems to ATL 34 for 3 yards (45-M.Overton, 42-C.Geathers). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model