4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

5-5 HC Chuck Pagano
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

6-4 HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 ET Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

IND
41.0%
ATL
59.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.146 vs Matt Hasselbeck (IND) +0.181 EPA/dropback (IND starting Matt Hasselbeck in place of Andrew Luck)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 21 14–28
–
ATL 27 20–34
Projected margin: ATL by 6 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

IND

Mike Adams S Out Ankle
Phillip Dorsett WR Out Ankle
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Josh McNary LB Questionable Groin
Nate Irving LB Probable Knee
D'Qwell Jackson WR Probable Hamstring

ATL

Robenson Therezie S Out Hamstring
Robert Alford CB Probable Groin
Justin Durant LB Probable Calf
Leonard Hankerson WR Probable Hamstring
Tyson Jackson DE Probable Ribs
Grady Jarrett DT Probable Elbow
William Moore S Probable Groin
Paul Soliai DT Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 24
–
ATL 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:10 TD ATL (:10) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 42-P.DiMarco for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 09:00 TD ATL (9:00) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 42-P.DiMarco for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – ATL 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD IND (2:00) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 44-A.Bradshaw for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-B.Reed]. IND 6 – ATL 14
  • Q3 09:45 TD ATL (9:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 85-L.Hankerson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – ATL 20
  • Q3 00:15 TD IND (:15) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 44-A.Bradshaw for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – ATL 21
  • Q4 10:14 TD IND (10:14) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 83-J.Tamme INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Jackson at ATL 6. 52-D.Jackson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – ATL 21
  • Q4 00:57 FG IND (:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 24 – ATL 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 78%

    (13:29) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to ATL 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 14-E.Weems to ATL 34 for 3 yards (45-M.Overton, 42-C.Geathers). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 32.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to IND 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:29) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to ATL 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to IND 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at ATL 38 for 42 yards (5-M.Bosher). PENALTY on IND-56-D.Adongo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to IND 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray to IND 32 for 11 yards (14-E.Weems).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 28%

    (10:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to ATL 1, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-10-D.Moncrief.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to IND 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 16 for 8 yards (50-O.Schofield).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:52) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to ATL 24, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:07) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray to IND 19 for -2 yards (47-J.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 85%

    (:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 16-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 80-C.Fleener at IND 10. 80-C.Fleener to IND 12 for 2 yards (16-J.Hardy).

    See the full breakdown →