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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model