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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to ATL 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP