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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to IND 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray to IND 32 for 11 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model