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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to ATL 1, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-10-D.Moncrief.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.86 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model