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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to IND 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 16 for 8 yards (50-O.Schofield).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model