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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-Q.Bray to IND 19 for -2 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.30 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model