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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 16-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 80-C.Fleener at IND 10. 80-C.Fleener to IND 12 for 2 yards (16-J.Hardy).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.13 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -0.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model