Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 12

(13:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to KC 26, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Maclin to KC 28 for 2 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model