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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 16:05 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

KC
42.5%
SD
57.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LAC on 6 more days rest than KC
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • KC crossing 2 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
SD 25
Projected margin: SD by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

Allen Bailey DE Out Calf
Ben Grubbs G Out Neck
Tyvon Branch S Questionable Foot
Ramik Wilson LB Questionable Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Probable Knee
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Sean Smith CB Probable Knee

SD

Malcom Floyd WR Out Shoulder
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Concussion
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Ankle
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Foot
King Dunlap T Probable Ankle
Kyle Emanuel LB Probable Concussion
Orlando Franklin G Probable Knee
Denzel Perryman LB Probable Biceps
Darrell Stuckey S Probable Hamstring
Manti Te'o LB Probable Ankle
Jason Verrett CB Probable Groin
Antonio Gates TE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 33
–
SD 3

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:13 TD KC (2:13) 92-D.Poe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – SD 0
  • Q2 12:15 FG LAC (12:15) 2-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. KC 6 – SD 3
  • Q2 05:58 FG KC (5:58) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 9 – SD 3
  • Q2 00:06 FG KC (:06) 5-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 12 – SD 3
  • Q3 03:35 TD KC (3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 39-D.Woodhead INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Houston at LAC 17. 50-J.Houston for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 18 – SD 3
  • Q4 06:11 TD KC (6:11) 32-S.Ware right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 25 – SD 3
  • Q4 02:38 TD KC (2:38) 32-S.Ware left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 32 – SD 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 36%

    (10:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:43) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to KC 29, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 19-J.Maclin.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:13) 92-D.Poe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 66%

    (12:15) 2-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (5:58) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 31%

    (2:23) 5-M.Scifres punts 34 yards to KC 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 19-J.Maclin.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to KC 26, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Maclin to KC 28 for 2 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 40%

    (10:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LAC 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 21%

    (4:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:52) 5-M.Scifres punts 57 yards to KC 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Maclin to KC 21 for 11 yards (57-J.Mays).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 44, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-J.Herndon MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-30-J.Fleming at LAC 44. 30-J.Fleming to LAC 44 for no gain (81-J.Herndon).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (12:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 21%

    (9:57) 5-M.Scifres punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 19-J.Maclin. PENALTY on LAC-47-M.Windt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 13.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:19) 28-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 24 for no gain (29-E.Berry).