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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LAC 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.09 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP