4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.03 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model