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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.64 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model