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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(:52) 5-M.Scifres punts 57 yards to KC 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Maclin to KC 21 for 11 yards (57-J.Mays).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model