Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 44, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-J.Herndon MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-30-J.Fleming at LAC 44. 30-J.Fleming to LAC 44 for no gain (81-J.Herndon).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.20 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model