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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 2-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model