Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 79

Houston Texans 3 – New York Jets 3

(7:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to NYJ 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 13 yards (51-J.Simon).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model