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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NYJ
46.3%
HOU
53.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: T.J. Yates (HOU) +0.242 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.119 EPA/dropback (HOU starting T.J. Yates in place of Brian Hoyer)
  • HOU offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYJ offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NYJ on 4 more days rest than HOU
  • T.J. Yates (HOU) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 23
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYJ

Dion Bailey S Out Ankle
Sheldon Richardson DT Questionable Hamstring
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Shoulder
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Quadricep
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Nick Mangold C Probable Neck
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Toe
Dexter McDougle CB Probable Hand
Dee Milliner CB Probable Illness
Bilal Powell RB Probable Ankle
Calvin Pryor S Probable Ankle
Darrelle Revis CB Probable Hip

HOU

Brian Hoyer QB Out Concussion
Kareem Jackson CB Out Ankle
Akeem Dent LB Questionable Hamstring
Chris Polk RB Questionable Hamstring
Brian Cushing LB Probable Not Injury Related
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Back
Jared Crick DE Probable Ankle
Charles James CB Probable Foot
Kevin Johnson CB Probable Thigh
Ben Jones C Probable Thumb
Johnathan Joseph CB Probable Calf
Nick Novak K Probable right Thigh
Brian Peters LB Probable Hamstring
Nate Washington WR Probable Hip
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
DeAndre Hopkins WR Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 17
–
HOU 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:56 FG HOU (14:56) 8-N.Novak 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. NYJ 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 08:25 FG NYJ (8:25) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 03:13 TD HOU (3:13) 6-T.Yates pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – HOU 9
  • Q3 11:30 TD NYJ (11:30) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 15-B.Marshall for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – HOU 10
  • Q3 07:57 TD HOU (7:57) 18-C.Shorts III pass deep right to 28-A.Blue for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (QB Yates Lateraled the ball to WR Shorts.) NYJ 10 – HOU 16
  • Q3 03:30 TD HOU (3:30) 6-T.Yates pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – HOU 23
  • Q4 04:27 TD NYJ (4:27) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – HOU 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (52-B.Peters, 57-J.Tuggle). (The Punt Hangtime was 4.41 seconds.)

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (8:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (14:56) 8-N.Novak 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:52) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 35 for 11 yards (47-K.Davis). (The Punt Hangtime was 4.34 seconds.) PENALTY on NYJ-57-T.Reilly, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 88%

    (8:25) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to NYJ 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 13 yards (51-J.Simon).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:54) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 18 for 2 yards (41-B.Skrine).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to HOU 37, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 46 for 9 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (13:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:26) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to HOU 38, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 37 for -1 yards (47-K.Davis, 40-T.Bohanon).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:02) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NYJ 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 40 for 12 yards (40-K.Drummond). PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 28.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:08) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 23 for 3 yards (58-E.Henderson). FUMBLES (58-E.Henderson), and recovers at HOU 23. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 23 for no gain (58-E.Henderson).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 27 for 12 yards (45-J.Prosch).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 89%

    (5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick left end to HOU 18 for 3 yards (35-E.Pleasant).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 41 for 10 yards (52-B.Peters).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right intended for 19-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 35-E.Pleasant at HOU 38. 35-E.Pleasant ran ob at HOU 37 for -1 yards.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:29) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.