Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Jets 3 – Houston Texans 3

(5:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model