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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 82

New York Jets 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to HOU 37, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 46 for 9 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 40, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model