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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 49

Houston Texans 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model