Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 81

New York Jets 10 – Houston Texans 17

(6:26) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to HOU 38, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 37 for -1 yards (47-K.Davis, 40-T.Bohanon).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model