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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 85

Houston Texans 24 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NYJ 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 40 for 12 yards (40-K.Drummond). PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.46 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP