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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 21

New York Jets 10 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick left end to HOU 18 for 3 yards (35-E.Pleasant).

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.44 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model