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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 49

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model