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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 54

New York Jets 17 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right intended for 19-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 35-E.Pleasant at HOU 38. 35-E.Pleasant ran ob at HOU 37 for -1 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -1.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model