Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 35 for 11 yards (47-K.Davis). (The Punt Hangtime was 4.34 seconds.) PENALTY on NYJ-57-T.Reilly, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.25 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model